Both indexes read the same headline at the same moment. They do not travel the same distance afterwards. This is the median half-hour swing for each, release by release.
| release | Nasdaq 100 | S&P 500 | ratio | which moves further? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOLTS | 0.48% | 0.32% | 1.49x | Nasdaq, clearly |
| PPI | 0.44% | 0.30% | 1.45x | Nasdaq, clearly |
| GDP | 0.27% | 0.19% | 1.42x | Nasdaq, clearly |
| Core PCE | 0.39% | 0.28% | 1.40x | Nasdaq, clearly |
| Payrolls | 0.69% | 0.49% | 1.39x | Nasdaq, clearly |
| Retail sales | 0.26% | 0.20% | 1.34x | Nasdaq |
| CPI | 0.69% | 0.52% | 1.33x | Nasdaq |
| FOMC | 0.51% | 0.42% | 1.22x | Nasdaq |
The Nasdaq moved further after every release measured here, by between 1.22 and 1.49 times. That is what a heavier weighting in rate-sensitive technology looks like in a half hour, and it is the reason every other page on this site is measured on the Nasdaq: it is where the reaction is easiest to see.
Every release on this site is measured on both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, from the same minute, over the same thirty-minute window, using the same definition of swing. This table puts the two medians side by side. The ratio is the Nasdaq median divided by the S&P median, so a ratio of 1.40 means the Nasdaq travelled forty percent further in the half hour after that release, on the typical occasion.
The Nasdaq moved further after every release measured, and the ratio barely depends on which release it was. It runs from 1.22 to 1.49, a narrow band for eight releases that differ by a factor of two or more in how much they move. That narrowness is the finding. It says the extra travel is not about the report; it is about the index. The Nasdaq 100 is heavier in the large technology names whose valuations move most when the rate path moves, and a rate-sensitive index reacts to a rate-relevant number by a fairly constant margin whatever the number is called.
FOMC is the row with the smallest gap at 1.22, which is at least consistent with that reading. An FOMC decision is the one release that speaks to the whole market at once rather than to the rate-sensitive part of it, so the two indexes have the least reason to disagree.
Every other page on this site is measured on the Nasdaq, because the reaction is easiest to see there. If you trade ES rather than NQ, the row's ratio is the conversion. A 0.69% CPI median on the Nasdaq reads as 0.52% on the S&P, and the same discount applies, roughly, to the biggest day, the first minute and the two-hour drift, none of which are measured separately for the S&P here. Roughly is the word. The ratio is a ratio of medians, not the median of the day-by-day ratio, and on any given day the two indexes can diverge by more than that.
Which index to trade. More travel is more opportunity and more cost in the same number, and the table takes no view. Both series are index CFDs rather than the CME contracts, so the point values and the futures basis are not in these figures. The S&P record is one or two releases shorter than the Nasdaq record on some rows, which is why the counts in the table are not always identical to the ones on the release pages.
Releases: Core PCE Price Index Consumer Price Index FOMC Rate Decision GDP JOLTS Job Openings Nonfarm Payrolls Producer Price Index Retail Sales