How the Nasdaq 100 reacts to retail sales, measured over 39 releases
Next release Tuesday, 17 Nov 2026 at 08:30 ET All scheduled dates →
An early estimate of what Americans spent at retailers and restaurants last month. It is called "advance" because it is published quickly on a partial sample and revised later, which is part of why the first print moves markets.
How this compares
This is the quietest of the 8 releases measured here. Its median half-hour range is 0.26%, against 0.71% for CPI - which moves the Nasdaq 100 2.7 times as far.
The reaction builds rather than jumps: only 21% of the half-hour's range is spent in the first five minutes.
The widest single reaction measured was 1.18%, on 2024-08-15. Releases that printed in the same minute as another report on this site are excluded from these figures, since the move belongs to both and to neither.
What the record shows
- When the figure printed below the forecast, the Nasdaq 100 finished the half hour higher 7 of 9 times.
- The travel is lopsided downward: a median 0.14% at the worst point of the half hour against 0.10% at the best.
- It does not finish at thirty minutes. Two hours out the median distance from the release price is 0.27%, against 0.11% at the half hour.
Measured on the Nasdaq 100, over every release on this site with at least 12 of its own on record, and excluding any that printed in the same minute as another report here. Each line is a count of what happened, not a forecast of what will: the table below holds every release the figures are drawn from, and some of these counts rest on a dozen observations or fewer. A median is what usually happened, not what happens next.
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Does the first move keep going?
The first move is where the Nasdaq 100 sat five minutes after retail sales, above or below the release price. Later, each release either kept going (same side, further away), held but gave some back (same side, closer to the release price) or reversed (back across it). 39 releases.
| After | Kept going | Held, gave some back | Reversed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 minutes | 22 of 39 (56%) | 11 of 39 (28%) | 6 of 39 (15%) |
| 1 hour | 25 of 39 (64%) | 5 of 39 (13%) | 9 of 39 (23%) |
| 2 hours | 20 of 39 (51%) | 4 of 39 (10%) | 15 of 39 (38%) |
Split by the first move, one hour on: when the first five minutes went up, the index was still above the release price in 13 of 19; when they went down, it was back above the release price in 3 of 20.
Counts of what happened on the index CFD, not odds for the next release. With a few dozen releases one or two prints move every percentage noticeably. Each row looks at one moment only, not the path in between. A reading exactly at the release price counts as reversed and an equal distance as gave some back; a release missing that reading drops out of that row only. Releases that shared their minute with another report are included.
After retail sales: trend or reversal?
Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?
Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.
Through the day, all 39 releases
Every release, drawn relative to its first move
Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went down first. 3 of 39 lines run past ±2.0% and are cut at the edge.
Every retail sales release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 39 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 39 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.
This record is on your chart: TradingCipher Events writes trend 54% at the top of the retail sales line in NinjaTrader 8, on the next one before it prints. See it on a chart, 30 days free →
Nasdaq 100
Across 39 releases, Nasdaq 100 moved a typical 0.29% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 1.18%, on 15 Aug 2024. It finished that half hour higher 19 times out of 39. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.15% against 0.29% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.
first 30 min
15 Aug 2024
vs down
All 39 releases, including 10 that shared their minute with another report; the cross-release figures leave those out.
One line per release. Each traces the index from 15 minutes before the print to an hour after, as percent from the last price beforehand. Above the centre line is up. Newer releases are drawn brighter - hover a date to follow just that one.
Every release we have measured · 39
| release | printed | forecast | surprise | 5 min after | 30 min after | 60 min after | swing, first 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026* | +0.8% | +0.3% | ▲ 0.5 pp | -0.12% | -0.18% | -0.32% | 0.46% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | +1.2% | +0.8% | ▲ 0.4 pp | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.15% | 0.24% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | -0.6% | +0.1% | ▼ 0.7 pp | +0.07% | +0.06% | -0.03% | 0.12% |
| 16 Jul 2026 | +0.2% | +0.2% | in line | +0.04% | -0.05% | +0.20% | 0.21% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | +0.9% | +0.5% | ▲ 0.4 pp | +0.09% | +0.09% | +0.21% | 0.19% |
| 14 May 2026 | +0.5% | +0.5% | in line | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.29% | 0.29% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | +1.7% | +1.4% | ▲ 0.3 pp | +0.03% | -0.15% | -0.19% | 0.22% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | +0.6% | +0.5% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.02% | -0.34% | -0.22% | 0.46% |
| 6 Mar 2026* | -0.2% | -0.3% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.18% | -0.90% | -0.74% | 1.04% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 0.0% | +0.4% | ▼ 0.4 pp | +0.07% | +0.16% | +0.18% | 0.29% |
| 14 Jan 2026* | +0.6% | +0.5% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.12% | -0.16% | -0.22% | 0.28% |
| 16 Dec 2025* | 0.0% | +0.1% | ▼ 0.1 pp | +0.23% | -0.16% | -0.23% | 0.57% |
| 25 Nov 2025* | +0.2% | +0.4% | ▼ 0.2 pp | -0.14% | -0.22% | -0.33% | 0.34% |
| 16 Sep 2025 | +0.6% | +0.2% | ▲ 0.4 pp | +0.02% | +0.02% | -0.01% | 0.09% |
| 15 Aug 2025 | +0.5% | +0.6% | ▼ 0.1 pp | +0.03% | +0.02% | +0.05% | 0.11% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +0.6% | +0.1% | ▲ 0.5 pp | +0.01% | +0.22% | +0.03% | 0.26% |
| 17 Jun 2025 | -0.9% | -0.5% | ▼ 0.4 pp | -0.05% | -0.14% | -0.09% | 0.25% |
| 15 May 2025* | +0.1% | 0.0% | ▲ 0.1 pp | +0.28% | +0.12% | +0.19% | 0.42% |
| 16 Apr 2025 | +1.4% | +1.3% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.02% | -0.31% | -0.60% | 0.44% |
| 17 Mar 2025 | +0.2% | +0.6% | ▼ 0.4 pp | +0.32% | +0.39% | +0.12% | 0.60% |
| 14 Feb 2025 | -0.9% | -0.2% | ▼ 0.7 pp | +0.07% | +0.10% | +0.12% | 0.17% |
| 16 Jan 2025 | +0.4% | +0.6% | ▼ 0.2 pp | -0.05% | +0.13% | +0.22% | 0.26% |
| 17 Dec 2024 | +0.7% | +0.6% | ▲ 0.1 pp | +0.02% | +0.02% | -0.06% | 0.16% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | +0.4% | +0.3% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.34% | 0.24% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | +0.4% | +0.3% | ▲ 0.1 pp | +0.04% | +0.21% | +0.28% | 0.24% |
| 17 Sep 2024 | +0.1% | -0.2% | ▲ 0.3 pp | -0.02% | +0.09% | +0.08% | 0.25% |
| 15 Aug 2024 | +1.0% | +0.4% | ▲ 0.6 pp | +0.58% | +0.89% | +0.98% | 1.18% |
| 16 Jul 2024 | 0.0% | -0.3% | ▲ 0.3 pp | +0.05% | +0.04% | +0.09% | 0.32% |
| 18 Jun 2024 | +0.1% | +0.3% | ▼ 0.2 pp | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.19% | 0.38% |
| 15 May 2024* | 0.0% | +0.4% | ▼ 0.4 pp | +0.61% | +0.57% | +0.57% | 0.79% |
| 15 Apr 2024 | +0.7% | +0.4% | ▲ 0.3 pp | +0.06% | +0.16% | +0.18% | 0.42% |
| 14 Mar 2024* | +0.6% | +0.8% | ▼ 0.2 pp | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.16% | 0.34% |
| 15 Feb 2024 | -0.8% | -0.2% | ▼ 0.6 pp | +0.10% | +0.03% | -0.04% | 0.29% |
| 17 Jan 2024 | +0.6% | +0.4% | ▲ 0.2 pp | -0.06% | -0.30% | -0.27% | 0.41% |
| 14 Dec 2023 | +0.3% | -0.1% | ▲ 0.4 pp | -0.08% | +0.11% | -0.09% | 0.28% |
| 15 Nov 2023* | -0.1% | -0.3% | ▲ 0.2 pp | -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.25% | 0.69% |
| 17 Oct 2023 | +0.7% | +0.3% | ▲ 0.4 pp | -0.18% | -0.43% | -0.61% | 0.47% |
| 14 Sep 2023* | +0.6% | +0.1% | ▲ 0.5 pp | -0.18% | -0.05% | -0.02% | 0.40% |
| 15 Aug 2023 | +0.7% | +0.4% | ▲ 0.3 pp | -0.09% | -0.07% | +0.20% | 0.34% |
Printed is the headline figure as it read on the day - for price indexes the seasonally adjusted change from the prior month, not the twelve-month rate, and not restated for revisions published later. Forecast is the consensus expectation going in. ▲ marks a print above that forecast and ▼ below it; which of those is good news depends on the report. A dash means the figure could not be established from a source this site trusts, and nothing is estimated to fill the gap.
* 10 of these releases shared their minute with another report on this site. The market moved once; which release caused it cannot be separated. Those rows are shown because leaving them out would overstate how much is known, not because they are evidence about this release on its own.
S&P 500
Across 39 releases, S&P 500 moved a typical 0.22% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 0.96%, on 6 Mar 2026. It finished that half hour higher 19 times out of 39. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.09% against 0.22% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.
first 30 min
6 Mar 2026
vs down
All 39 releases, including 10 that shared their minute with another report; the cross-release figures leave those out.
One line per release. Each traces the index from 15 minutes before the print to an hour after, as percent from the last price beforehand. Above the centre line is up. Newer releases are drawn brighter - hover a date to follow just that one.
Every release we have measured · 39
| release | printed | forecast | surprise | 5 min after | 30 min after | 60 min after | swing, first 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026* | +0.8% | +0.3% | ▲ 0.5 pp | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.21% | 0.31% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | +1.2% | +0.8% | ▲ 0.4 pp | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.09% | 0.13% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | -0.6% | +0.1% | ▼ 0.7 pp | +0.03% | +0.03% | -0.01% | 0.06% |
| 16 Jul 2026 | +0.2% | +0.2% | in line | +0.02% | 0.00% | +0.13% | 0.12% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | +0.9% | +0.5% | ▲ 0.4 pp | +0.04% | +0.06% | +0.07% | 0.09% |
| 14 May 2026 | +0.5% | +0.5% | in line | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.21% | 0.14% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | +1.7% | +1.4% | ▲ 0.3 pp | 0.00% | -0.14% | -0.16% | 0.22% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | +0.6% | +0.5% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.04% | -0.30% | -0.14% | 0.64% |
| 6 Mar 2026* | -0.2% | -0.3% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.18% | -0.80% | -0.69% | 0.96% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 0.0% | +0.4% | ▼ 0.4 pp | +0.04% | +0.08% | +0.16% | 0.17% |
| 14 Jan 2026* | +0.6% | +0.5% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.09% | 0.19% |
| 16 Dec 2025* | 0.0% | +0.1% | ▼ 0.1 pp | +0.19% | -0.07% | -0.16% | 0.40% |
| 25 Nov 2025* | +0.2% | +0.4% | ▼ 0.2 pp | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.13% | 0.22% |
| 16 Sep 2025 | +0.6% | +0.2% | ▲ 0.4 pp | +0.01% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.10% |
| 15 Aug 2025 | +0.5% | +0.6% | ▼ 0.1 pp | +0.03% | +0.04% | +0.02% | 0.09% |
| 17 Jul 2025 | +0.6% | +0.1% | ▲ 0.5 pp | -0.01% | +0.19% | +0.04% | 0.25% |
| 17 Jun 2025 | -0.9% | -0.5% | ▼ 0.4 pp | -0.04% | -0.12% | -0.03% | 0.20% |
| 15 May 2025* | +0.1% | 0.0% | ▲ 0.1 pp | +0.22% | +0.10% | +0.13% | 0.34% |
| 16 Apr 2025 | +1.4% | +1.3% | ▲ 0.1 pp | +0.01% | -0.21% | -0.39% | 0.35% |
| 17 Mar 2025 | +0.2% | +0.6% | ▼ 0.4 pp | +0.29% | +0.38% | +0.29% | 0.58% |
| 14 Feb 2025 | -0.9% | -0.2% | ▼ 0.7 pp | +0.03% | +0.07% | +0.10% | 0.11% |
| 16 Jan 2025 | +0.4% | +0.6% | ▼ 0.2 pp | -0.05% | +0.07% | +0.16% | 0.18% |
| 17 Dec 2024 | +0.7% | +0.6% | ▲ 0.1 pp | +0.02% | +0.05% | -0.03% | 0.11% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | +0.4% | +0.3% | ▲ 0.1 pp | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.16% | 0.19% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | +0.4% | +0.3% | ▲ 0.1 pp | +0.03% | +0.10% | +0.18% | 0.13% |
| 17 Sep 2024 | +0.1% | -0.2% | ▲ 0.3 pp | -0.03% | +0.06% | +0.03% | 0.15% |
| 15 Aug 2024 | +1.0% | +0.4% | ▲ 0.6 pp | +0.44% | +0.68% | +0.76% | 0.88% |
| 16 Jul 2024 | 0.0% | -0.3% | ▲ 0.3 pp | +0.07% | +0.04% | +0.12% | 0.21% |
| 18 Jun 2024 | +0.1% | +0.3% | ▼ 0.2 pp | -0.01% | -0.03% | +0.01% | 0.18% |
| 15 May 2024* | 0.0% | +0.4% | ▼ 0.4 pp | +0.46% | +0.50% | +0.44% | 0.64% |
| 15 Apr 2024 | +0.7% | +0.4% | ▲ 0.3 pp | +0.10% | +0.18% | +0.26% | 0.43% |
| 14 Mar 2024* | +0.6% | +0.8% | ▼ 0.2 pp | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.18% | 0.22% |
| 15 Feb 2024 | -0.8% | -0.2% | ▼ 0.6 pp | +0.08% | +0.03% | -0.06% | 0.23% |
| 17 Jan 2024 | +0.6% | +0.4% | ▲ 0.2 pp | -0.01% | -0.21% | -0.24% | 0.26% |
| 14 Dec 2023 | +0.3% | -0.1% | ▲ 0.4 pp | -0.03% | +0.28% | +0.09% | 0.37% |
| 15 Nov 2023* | -0.1% | -0.3% | ▲ 0.2 pp | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.18% | 0.45% |
| 17 Oct 2023 | +0.7% | +0.3% | ▲ 0.4 pp | -0.11% | -0.25% | -0.44% | 0.27% |
| 14 Sep 2023* | +0.6% | +0.1% | ▲ 0.5 pp | -0.10% | +0.05% | +0.12% | 0.30% |
| 15 Aug 2023 | +0.7% | +0.4% | ▲ 0.3 pp | -0.04% | -0.09% | +0.19% | 0.26% |
Printed is the headline figure as it read on the day - for price indexes the seasonally adjusted change from the prior month, not the twelve-month rate, and not restated for revisions published later. Forecast is the consensus expectation going in. ▲ marks a print above that forecast and ▼ below it; which of those is good news depends on the report. A dash means the figure could not be established from a source this site trusts, and nothing is estimated to fill the gap.
* 10 of these releases shared their minute with another report on this site. The market moved once; which release caused it cannot be separated. Those rows are shown because leaving them out would overstate how much is known, not because they are evidence about this release on its own.
Questions people ask about retail sales
How much does the Nasdaq 100 move after retail sales?
Across 39 releases the Nasdaq 100 moved a median 0.29% from high to low in the first thirty minutes. The widest reaction was 1.18%, on 15 Aug 2024. It finished the half hour higher 19 times out of 39.
What time is Retail Sales released, and when is the next one?
Census Bureau publishes it at 08:30 ET, monthly. The next one is Tuesday 17 Nov 2026 at 08:30 ET.
Does the first move after retail sales hold?
In 77% of the 39 releases measured, the Nasdaq 100 was still on the same side of the release price at sixty minutes as it was at five minutes. The other 23% reversed.
Which moves more after retail sales, the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P 500?
The Nasdaq 100. Median thirty-minute swing: Nasdaq 100 0.29% over 39 releases, S&P 500 0.22% over 39. Each index is measured on its own record, so the two counts can differ.
Is the reaction to retail sales over in thirty minutes?
Not by this measure. The median distance from the release price is 0.15% at thirty minutes and 0.19% at sixty, so the index was typically further from the release price an hour in than it was at the half hour. That compares two moments, not the path between them.
How this is measured
The reference price is the last print before the release minute. Every figure on this page is the distance from that price, as a percentage, using one-minute bars. “Swing” is the highest price minus the lowest price in the thirty minutes after the release - not the net change, which is where a price ended up rather than how far it travelled to get there.
Release dates come from the Census Bureau's own published schedule, so an unusual date is a real one rather than a guess from a calendar rule. Prices are Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index CFDs, which trade around the clock and therefore cover the 08:30 ET releases that land before the equity market opens. They track the futures closely but are not the CME contracts, and every figure is a percentage of the index level, not a contract point.
Past reactions are a record, not a forecast. Nothing here is investment advice.
Other releases: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Durable Goods Orders Fed Rate Decision (FOMC) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Housing Starts and Building Permits Import and Export Prices Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) New Home Sales Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Producer Price Index (PPI) Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Trade Balance (International Trade)
Across every release: All of them · Which moves most · Biggest reactions · Beating the forecast · Does the first move hold · Is it over in 30 min · The quiet before · Up or down · Nasdaq vs S&P · The first minute · Two at once · Are they growing
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