Some releases share a minute. The market moves once, and which report caused it cannot be separated - which is why every other figure on this site leaves those dates out. This page is the exception: it shows what the exclusion is protecting against.
| release | lands with | on its own | sharing a minute | ratio | does sharing change it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail sales | PPI, Payrolls, CPI | 0.26% (29) | 0.42% (9) | 1.60x | Moves much more |
| GDP | Core PCE | 0.27% (24) | 0.39% (9) | 1.45x | Moves much more |
| Core PCE | GDP | 0.39% (26) | 0.39% (9) | 1.00x | No real difference |
| PPI | Retail sales | 0.44% (31) | 0.37% (6) | 0.84x | Moves less |
Read the quiet releases first. GDP and retail sales travel about half again as far on the dates they share with a bigger report, which is what you would expect if the move was never theirs: it belonged to the release beside them. That is the whole argument for excluding these dates everywhere else, and it is why those rows are marked rather than deleted on each release page. The shared samples are small - single figures in every case - so these are directions, not measurements.
Some releases print at exactly the same minute as another. GDP and Core PCE share their 08:30 more often than not; retail sales sometimes lands with PPI, and on rare mornings with the jobs report or CPI. The market moves once on those mornings and the move belongs to both reports and to neither, which is why every other figure on this site leaves shared minutes out. This page is the exception. It shows what those figures would look like with the shared days left in, so the exclusion is a visible decision rather than a hidden one.
GDP on its own moves the Nasdaq 100 a median of 0.27%. On the days it shares a minute with Core PCE the median is 0.39%, 1.45 times as much. Core PCE on the same shared mornings shows no change at all, 1.00 times its own solo median. The reading is hard to avoid: on those mornings the move was Core PCE's, and counting it under GDP as well would make GDP look like a release it is not. Retail sales tells the same story at 1.60 times, and its partners are the loudest names on the calendar.
PPI is the one row below one, at 0.84, and its partner is retail sales, the quieter of the two. That is consistent with the same reading from the other side: when the louder release is the one sharing the minute, sharing does not add to it.
On the board, a release that shares its minute is marked rather than hidden, and its reaction on that date is still recorded, just not counted in the medians. When I see a shared minute coming I size for the louder partner and I read the reaction as the louder partner's, whatever the quiet one printed. A GDP morning that is also a Core PCE morning is a Core PCE morning.
The shared samples are single figures: 9 shared mornings for GDP, 6 for PPI. These are directions, not measurements, and one unusual morning would change any of the ratios. The attribution is also an inference. The data cannot see which report the market was reading; it can only see that the quiet release looks louder in company and the loud one looks the same, and the simplest explanation of that is the one given above.
Releases: Core PCE Price Index Consumer Price Index FOMC Rate Decision GDP JOLTS Job Openings Nonfarm Payrolls Producer Price Index Retail Sales