Next release Friday, 2 Oct 2026 at 08:30 ET
The Employment Situation report. Its headline figure is the month's change in nonfarm payroll employment. The same release also carries the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, which is why three separate lines appear on the calendar at the same minute.
This sits 2 of 8 for how far it moves the Nasdaq 100 - the louder half of the board. Its median half-hour range is 0.69%, where CPI runs 0.69% (1.0x as far) and retail sales 0.26%.
The widest single reaction measured was 1.58%, on 2023-10-06. Releases that printed in the same minute as another report on this site are excluded from these figures, since the move belongs to both and to neither.
Measured on the Nasdaq 100, over every release on this site with at least 12 of its own on record, and excluding any that printed in the same minute as another report here. Each line is a count of what happened, not a forecast of what will: the table below holds every release the figures are drawn from, and some of these counts rest on a dozen observations or fewer. A median is what usually happened, not what happens next.
Across 36 releases, Nasdaq 100 moved a typical 0.73% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 1.58%, on 6 Oct 2023. It finished that half hour higher 21 times out of 36. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.38% against 0.73% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.
One line per release. Each traces the index from 15 minutes before the print to an hour after, as percent from the last price beforehand. Above the centre line is up. Newer releases are drawn brighter - hover a date to follow just that one.
| release | printed | forecast | surprise | 5 min after | 30 min after | 60 min after | swing, first 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | +162K | +55K | ▲ 107K | -0.44% | -0.45% | -0.31% | 0.64% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | -23K | +85K | ▼ 108K | +0.30% | +0.60% | +0.16% | 0.79% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | +57K | +114K | ▼ 57K | +0.31% | 0.00% | -0.33% | 0.54% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | +172K | +85K | ▲ 87K | -0.17% | -0.20% | -0.25% | 0.30% |
| 8 May 2026 | +115K | +65K | ▲ 50K | +0.11% | +0.03% | -0.09% | 0.29% |
| 6 Mar 2026* | -92K | +58K | ▼ 150K | -0.18% | -0.90% | -0.74% | 1.04% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +130K | +66K | ▲ 64K | +0.44% | +0.76% | +0.66% | 0.81% |
| 9 Jan 2026 | +50K | +66K | ▼ 16K | +0.16% | +0.25% | -0.11% | 0.27% |
| 16 Dec 2025* | +64K | +51K | ▲ 13K | +0.23% | -0.16% | -0.23% | 0.57% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | +119K | +53K | ▲ 66K | +0.21% | +0.38% | +0.29% | 0.54% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | +22K | +75K | ▼ 53K | +0.21% | +0.40% | +0.40% | 0.62% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | +73K | +106K | ▼ 33K | -0.27% | -0.24% | -0.16% | 0.46% |
| 3 Jul 2025 | +147K | +111K | ▲ 36K | +0.28% | +0.14% | +0.31% | 0.34% |
| 6 Jun 2025 | +139K | +126K | ▲ 13K | +0.36% | +0.38% | +0.55% | 0.50% |
| 2 May 2025 | +177K | +138K | ▲ 39K | +0.39% | +0.77% | +0.75% | 0.86% |
| 4 Apr 2025 | +228K | +137K | ▲ 91K | +0.36% | +0.33% | 0.00% | 0.95% |
| 7 Mar 2025 | +151K | +159K | ▼ 8K | +0.38% | -0.21% | -0.35% | 1.15% |
| 7 Feb 2025 | +143K | +169K | ▼ 26K | -0.07% | +0.12% | +0.15% | 0.55% |
| 10 Jan 2025 | +256K | +164K | ▲ 92K | -1.09% | -0.86% | -0.50% | 1.21% |
| 6 Dec 2024 | +227K | +218K | ▲ 9K | +0.19% | +0.10% | +0.11% | 0.38% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | +12K | +106K | ▼ 94K | +0.15% | +0.07% | -0.15% | 0.32% |
| 4 Oct 2024 | +254K | +147K | ▲ 107K | +0.27% | +0.87% | +0.77% | 0.92% |
| 6 Sep 2024 | +142K | +164K | ▼ 22K | +0.44% | +0.83% | +0.80% | 1.18% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | +114K | +176K | ▼ 62K | -0.81% | -0.65% | -0.30% | 1.27% |
| 5 Jul 2024 | +206K | +191K | ▲ 15K | +0.04% | -0.11% | -0.03% | 0.54% |
| 7 Jun 2024 | +272K | +182K | ▲ 90K | -0.43% | -0.57% | -0.28% | 1.03% |
| 3 May 2024 | +175K | +238K | ▼ 63K | +0.86% | +0.94% | +1.14% | 1.20% |
| 5 Apr 2024 | +303K | +212K | ▲ 91K | +0.02% | -0.05% | -0.08% | 0.76% |
| 8 Mar 2024 | +275K | +198K | ▲ 77K | +0.20% | +0.40% | +0.23% | 0.87% |
| 2 Feb 2024 | +353K | +187K | ▲ 166K | -0.47% | -0.64% | -0.58% | 0.73% |
| 5 Jan 2024 | +216K | +168K | ▲ 48K | -0.23% | -0.05% | +0.25% | 0.56% |
| 8 Dec 2023 | +199K | +184K | ▲ 15K | -0.29% | -0.06% | -0.13% | 0.64% |
| 3 Nov 2023 | +150K | +178K | ▼ 28K | +0.70% | +0.58% | +0.61% | 0.78% |
| 6 Oct 2023 | +336K | +171K | ▲ 165K | -1.38% | -1.36% | -1.01% | 1.58% |
| 1 Sep 2023 | +187K | +169K | ▲ 18K | +0.36% | +0.40% | +0.36% | 0.60% |
| 4 Aug 2023 | +187K | +205K | ▼ 18K | -0.06% | +0.31% | +0.30% | 0.87% |
Printed is the headline figure as it read on the day - for price indexes the seasonally adjusted change from the prior month, not the twelve-month rate, and not restated for revisions published later. Forecast is the consensus expectation going in. ▲ marks a print above that forecast and ▼ below it; which of those is good news depends on the report. A dash means the figure could not be established from a source this site trusts, and nothing is estimated to fill the gap.
* 2 of these releases shared their minute with another report on this site. The market moved once; which release caused it cannot be separated. Those rows are shown because leaving them out would overstate how much is known, not because they are evidence about this release on its own.
Across 36 releases, S&P 500 moved a typical 0.50% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 1.22%, on 6 Oct 2023. It finished that half hour higher 22 times out of 36. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.27% against 0.50% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.
One line per release. Each traces the index from 15 minutes before the print to an hour after, as percent from the last price beforehand. Above the centre line is up. Newer releases are drawn brighter - hover a date to follow just that one.
| release | printed | forecast | surprise | 5 min after | 30 min after | 60 min after | swing, first 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | +162K | +55K | ▲ 107K | -0.28% | -0.27% | -0.22% | 0.39% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | -23K | +85K | ▼ 108K | +0.12% | +0.23% | 0.00% | 0.35% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | +57K | +114K | ▼ 57K | +0.19% | +0.07% | -0.01% | 0.32% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | +172K | +85K | ▲ 87K | -0.12% | -0.12% | -0.14% | 0.29% |
| 8 May 2026 | +115K | +65K | ▲ 50K | +0.10% | -0.03% | -0.07% | 0.23% |
| 6 Mar 2026* | -92K | +58K | ▼ 150K | -0.18% | -0.80% | -0.69% | 0.96% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +130K | +66K | ▲ 64K | +0.33% | +0.46% | +0.45% | 0.49% |
| 9 Jan 2026 | +50K | +66K | ▼ 16K | +0.10% | +0.17% | -0.07% | 0.20% |
| 16 Dec 2025* | +64K | +51K | ▲ 13K | +0.19% | -0.07% | -0.16% | 0.40% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | +119K | +53K | ▲ 66K | +0.20% | +0.40% | +0.36% | 0.50% |
| 5 Sep 2025 | +22K | +75K | ▼ 53K | +0.18% | +0.32% | +0.28% | 0.50% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | +73K | +106K | ▼ 33K | -0.24% | -0.17% | -0.11% | 0.44% |
| 3 Jul 2025 | +147K | +111K | ▲ 36K | +0.22% | +0.08% | +0.20% | 0.25% |
| 6 Jun 2025 | +139K | +126K | ▲ 13K | +0.31% | +0.35% | +0.51% | 0.43% |
| 2 May 2025 | +177K | +138K | ▲ 39K | +0.34% | +0.74% | +0.67% | 0.81% |
| 4 Apr 2025 | +228K | +137K | ▲ 91K | +0.29% | +0.27% | +0.04% | 0.95% |
| 7 Mar 2025 | +151K | +159K | ▼ 8K | +0.25% | -0.22% | -0.36% | 0.98% |
| 7 Feb 2025 | +143K | +169K | ▼ 26K | -0.05% | +0.12% | +0.15% | 0.43% |
| 10 Jan 2025 | +256K | +164K | ▲ 92K | -0.88% | -0.73% | -0.44% | 1.01% |
| 6 Dec 2024 | +227K | +218K | ▲ 9K | +0.21% | +0.21% | +0.20% | 0.39% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | +12K | +106K | ▼ 94K | +0.10% | +0.12% | +0.03% | 0.25% |
| 4 Oct 2024 | +254K | +147K | ▲ 107K | +0.12% | +0.53% | +0.43% | 0.62% |
| 6 Sep 2024 | +142K | +164K | ▼ 22K | +0.33% | +0.62% | +0.65% | 0.85% |
| 2 Aug 2024 | +114K | +176K | ▼ 62K | -0.76% | -0.56% | -0.36% | 0.89% |
| 5 Jul 2024 | +206K | +191K | ▲ 15K | +0.05% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.23% |
| 7 Jun 2024 | +272K | +182K | ▲ 90K | -0.42% | -0.51% | -0.27% | 0.77% |
| 3 May 2024 | +175K | +238K | ▼ 63K | +0.73% | +0.75% | +0.85% | 0.96% |
| 5 Apr 2024 | +303K | +212K | ▲ 91K | -0.05% | -0.12% | -0.12% | 0.47% |
| 8 Mar 2024 | +275K | +198K | ▲ 77K | +0.17% | +0.34% | +0.19% | 0.70% |
| 2 Feb 2024 | +353K | +187K | ▲ 166K | -0.42% | -0.59% | -0.52% | 0.63% |
| 5 Jan 2024 | +216K | +168K | ▲ 48K | -0.22% | +0.01% | +0.21% | 0.43% |
| 8 Dec 2023 | +199K | +184K | ▲ 15K | -0.22% | +0.01% | 0.00% | 0.54% |
| 3 Nov 2023 | +150K | +178K | ▼ 28K | +0.55% | +0.55% | +0.63% | 0.68% |
| 6 Oct 2023 | +336K | +171K | ▲ 165K | -1.03% | -1.00% | -0.65% | 1.22% |
| 1 Sep 2023 | +187K | +169K | ▲ 18K | +0.23% | +0.21% | +0.21% | 0.38% |
| 4 Aug 2023 | +187K | +205K | ▼ 18K | -0.06% | +0.19% | +0.22% | 0.57% |
Printed is the headline figure as it read on the day - for price indexes the seasonally adjusted change from the prior month, not the twelve-month rate, and not restated for revisions published later. Forecast is the consensus expectation going in. ▲ marks a print above that forecast and ▼ below it; which of those is good news depends on the report. A dash means the figure could not be established from a source this site trusts, and nothing is estimated to fill the gap.
* 2 of these releases shared their minute with another report on this site. The market moved once; which release caused it cannot be separated. Those rows are shown because leaving them out would overstate how much is known, not because they are evidence about this release on its own.
The reference price is the last print before the release minute. Every figure on this page is the distance from that price, as a percentage, using one-minute bars. “Swing” is the highest price minus the lowest price in the thirty minutes after the release - not the net change, which is where a price ended up rather than how far it travelled to get there.
Release dates come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics's own published schedule, so an unusual date is a real one rather than a guess from a calendar rule. Prices are Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index CFDs, which trade around the clock and therefore cover the 08:30 ET releases that land before the equity market opens. They track the futures closely but are not the CME contracts, and the moves are index points.
Past reactions are a record, not a forecast. Nothing here is investment advice.
Other releases: Core PCE Price Index Consumer Price Index FOMC Rate Decision GDP JOLTS Job Openings Producer Price Index Retail Sales
Across every release: All of them · Which moves most · Biggest reactions · Beating the forecast · Does the first move hold · Is it over in 30 min · The quiet before · Up or down · Nasdaq vs S&P · The first minute · Two at once · Are they growing
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