FOMC Rate Decision

14:00 ET, on the final day of each scheduled two-day meeting · Federal Reserve · also called the Fed decision, FOMC statement

Next release Wednesday, 28 Oct 2026 at 14:00 ET

The Federal Open Market Committee's decision on the federal funds target range, published with a statement at 14:00 ET. A press conference follows at 14:30, which is why the hour after this release often looks different from the first thirty minutes.

How this compares

This sits 3 of 8 for how far it moves the Nasdaq 100 - the louder half of the board. Its median half-hour range is 0.51%, where CPI runs 0.69% (1.4x as far) and retail sales 0.26%.

The widest single reaction measured was 1.36%, on 2024-09-18. Releases that printed in the same minute as another report on this site are excluded from these figures, since the move belongs to both and to neither.

What the record shows

The market goes quiet ahead of it. The hour before the print has a median range of 0.28%, against 0.51% in the thirty minutes after - 1.8 times as much travel in half the time.
The travel is lopsided downward: a median 0.22% at the worst point of the half hour against 0.14% at the best.
It does not finish at thirty minutes. Two hours out the median distance from the release price is 0.58%, against 0.20% at the half hour.
The reaction has been fading. The earlier half of the record medians 0.65%; the later half, 0.40%.

Measured on the Nasdaq 100, over every release on this site with at least 12 of its own on record, and excluding any that printed in the same minute as another report here. Each line is a count of what happened, not a forecast of what will: the table below holds every release the figures are drawn from, and some of these counts rest on a dozen observations or fewer. A median is what usually happened, not what happens next.

Nasdaq 100

Across 24 releases, Nasdaq 100 moved a typical 0.52% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 1.36%, on 18 Sep 2024. It finished that half hour higher 10 times out of 24. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.20% against 0.52% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.

0.52%

typical swing
first 30 min

1.36%

biggest swing
18 Sep 2024

10 / 14

finished up
vs down

Nasdaq 100+1.33%-1.33%

release+30 min+60 min

One line per release. Each traces the index from 15 minutes before the print to an hour after, as percent from the last price beforehand. Above the centre line is up. Newer releases are drawn brighter - hover a date to follow just that one.

Every release we have measured · 24

release	5 min after	30 min after	60 min after	swing, first 30 min
16 Sep 2026	+0.12%	-0.06%	-0.83%	0.45%
29 Jul 2026	+0.30%	+0.20%	+1.22%	0.72%
17 Jun 2026	-0.96%	-0.74%	-0.64%	1.31%
29 Apr 2026	-0.17%	-0.15%	+0.17%	0.35%
18 Mar 2026	+0.10%	-0.10%	-0.55%	0.36%
28 Jan 2026	-0.07%	-0.18%	-0.04%	0.30%
10 Dec 2025	+0.15%	+0.20%	+0.81%	0.52%
29 Oct 2025	-0.05%	-0.01%	-0.26%	0.30%
17 Sep 2025	+0.23%	-0.07%	-0.26%	0.95%
22 Aug 2025	+0.05%	-0.13%	+0.06%	0.28%
30 Jul 2025	-0.06%	+0.05%	-0.56%	0.20%
18 Jun 2025	-0.21%	-0.07%	-0.51%	0.50%
7 May 2025	+0.01%	-0.26%	+0.31%	0.95%
19 Mar 2025	+0.23%	+0.30%	+1.08%	0.76%
29 Jan 2025	-0.15%	-0.31%	+0.34%	0.45%
18 Dec 2024	-0.29%	-0.98%	-1.72%	1.03%
7 Nov 2024	-0.02%	+0.02%	+0.24%	0.21%
18 Sep 2024	+0.54%	+0.59%	+0.15%	1.36%
31 Jul 2024	0.00%	+0.22%	+0.65%	0.47%
12 Jun 2024	-0.19%	+0.05%	+0.02%	0.43%
20 Mar 2024	+0.49%	+0.54%	+0.81%	0.77%
31 Jan 2024	-0.23%	-0.31%	-0.03%	0.52%
13 Dec 2023	+0.46%	+0.65%	+1.10%	0.79%
20 Sep 2023	-0.36%	-0.21%	-0.41%	0.55%

S&P 500

Across 23 releases, S&P 500 moved a typical 0.42% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 1.02%, on 18 Sep 2024. It finished that half hour higher 10 times out of 23. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.14% against 0.42% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.

0.42%

typical swing
first 30 min

1.02%

biggest swing
18 Sep 2024

10 / 13

finished up
vs down

S&P 500+0.99%-0.99%

release+30 min+60 min

Every release we have measured · 23

release	5 min after	30 min after	60 min after	swing, first 30 min
16 Sep 2026	0.00%	-0.07%	-0.83%	0.32%
29 Jul 2026	+0.25%	+0.14%	+0.77%	0.50%
17 Jun 2026	-0.76%	-0.61%	-0.64%	0.99%
29 Apr 2026	-0.16%	-0.19%	0.00%	0.32%
18 Mar 2026	+0.06%	-0.09%	-0.51%	0.32%
28 Jan 2026	-0.01%	-0.13%	-0.03%	0.23%
10 Dec 2025	+0.15%	+0.20%	+0.74%	0.45%
29 Oct 2025	-0.01%	-0.01%	-0.30%	0.22%
17 Sep 2025	+0.31%	+0.11%	-0.29%	0.70%
22 Aug 2025	+0.02%	-0.06%	-0.05%	0.11%
30 Jul 2025	-0.04%	+0.02%	-0.61%	0.17%
18 Jun 2025	-0.15%	-0.04%	-0.40%	0.42%
7 May 2025	+0.04%	-0.24%	+0.27%	0.80%
19 Mar 2025	+0.21%	+0.25%	+0.89%	0.62%
29 Jan 2025	-0.21%	-0.35%	+0.14%	0.42%
7 Nov 2024	-0.03%	-0.02%	+0.21%	0.20%
18 Sep 2024	+0.47%	+0.48%	+0.11%	1.02%
31 Jul 2024	0.00%	+0.13%	+0.51%	0.34%
12 Jun 2024	-0.16%	+0.02%	-0.01%	0.36%
20 Mar 2024	+0.39%	+0.41%	+0.67%	0.59%
31 Jan 2024	-0.21%	-0.27%	-0.20%	0.46%
13 Dec 2023	+0.50%	+0.68%	+1.18%	0.76%
20 Sep 2023	-0.30%	-0.21%	-0.38%	0.35%

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How this is measured

The reference price is the last print before the release minute. Every figure on this page is the distance from that price, as a percentage, using one-minute bars. “Swing” is the highest price minus the lowest price in the thirty minutes after the release - not the net change, which is where a price ended up rather than how far it travelled to get there.

Release dates come from the Federal Reserve's own published schedule, so an unusual date is a real one rather than a guess from a calendar rule. Prices are Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index CFDs, which trade around the clock and therefore cover the 08:30 ET releases that land before the equity market opens. They track the futures closely but are not the CME contracts, and the moves are index points.

Past reactions are a record, not a forecast. Nothing here is investment advice.

Other releases: Core PCE Price Index Consumer Price Index GDP JOLTS Job Openings Nonfarm Payrolls Producer Price Index Retail Sales

Across every release: All of them · Which moves most · Biggest reactions · Beating the forecast · Does the first move hold · Is it over in 30 min · The quiet before · Up or down · Nasdaq vs S&P · The first minute · Two at once · Are they growing