How the Nasdaq 100 reacts to the FOMC decision, measured over 25 releases
Next release Wednesday, 9 Dec 2026 at 14:00 ET All scheduled dates →
The Federal Open Market Committee's decision on the federal funds target range, published with a statement at 14:00 ET. A press conference follows at 14:30, which is why the hour after this release often looks different from the first thirty minutes.
How this compares
This sits 3 of 8 for how far it moves the Nasdaq 100 - the louder half of the board. Its median half-hour range is 0.50%, where CPI runs 0.71% (1.4x as far) and retail sales 0.26%.
The widest single reaction measured was 1.36%, on 2024-09-18. Releases that printed in the same minute as another report on this site are excluded from these figures, since the move belongs to both and to neither.
What the record shows
- The market goes quiet ahead of it. The hour before the print has a median range of 0.28%, against 0.50% in the thirty minutes after - 1.8 times as much travel in half the time.
- The travel is lopsided downward: a median 0.22% at the worst point of the half hour against 0.13% at the best.
- It does not finish at thirty minutes. Two hours out the median distance from the release price is 0.53%, against 0.20% at the half hour.
- The reaction has been fading. The earlier half of the record medians 0.65%; the later half, 0.38%.
Measured on the Nasdaq 100, over every release on this site with at least 12 of its own on record, and excluding any that printed in the same minute as another report here. Each line is a count of what happened, not a forecast of what will: the table below holds every release the figures are drawn from, and some of these counts rest on a dozen observations or fewer. A median is what usually happened, not what happens next.
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Does the first move keep going?
The first move is where the Nasdaq 100 sat five minutes after the FOMC decision, above or below the release price. Later, each release either kept going (same side, further away), held but gave some back (same side, closer to the release price) or reversed (back across it). 25 releases.
| After | Kept going | Held, gave some back | Reversed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 minutes | 10 of 25 (40%) | 7 of 25 (28%) | 8 of 25 (32%) |
| 1 hour | 13 of 25 (52%) | 4 of 25 (16%) | 8 of 25 (32%) |
| 2 hours | 13 of 25 (52%) | 2 of 25 (8%) | 10 of 25 (40%) |
Split by the first move, one hour on: when the first five minutes went up, the index was still above the release price in 9 of 12; when they went down, it was back above the release price in 5 of 13.
Counts of what happened on the index CFD, not odds for the next release. With a few dozen releases one or two prints move every percentage noticeably. Each row looks at one moment only, not the path in between. A reading exactly at the release price counts as reversed and an equal distance as gave some back; a release missing that reading drops out of that row only. Releases that shared their minute with another report are included.
After the FOMC decision: trend or reversal?
Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?
Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.
Through the day, all 24 releases
Every release, drawn relative to its first move
Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went down first. 2 of 24 lines run past ±1.6% and are cut at the edge.
Every the FOMC decision release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 24 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 24 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 753 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 14:00 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 418 times (56%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.
This record is on your chart: TradingCipher Events writes trend 61% at the top of the FOMC decision line in NinjaTrader 8, on the next one before it prints. See it on a chart, 30 days free →
Nasdaq 100
Across 25 releases, Nasdaq 100 moved a typical 0.50% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 1.36%, on 18 Sep 2024. It finished that half hour higher 10 times out of 25. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.20% against 0.50% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.
first 30 min
18 Sep 2024
vs down
One line per release. Each traces the index from 15 minutes before the print to an hour after, as percent from the last price beforehand. Above the centre line is up. Newer releases are drawn brighter - hover a date to follow just that one.
Every release we have measured · 25
| release | 5 min after | 30 min after | 60 min after | swing, first 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | -0.08% | -0.01% | +0.14% | 0.38% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | +0.12% | -0.06% | -0.83% | 0.45% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | +0.30% | +0.20% | +1.22% | 0.72% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | -0.96% | -0.74% | -0.64% | 1.31% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -0.17% | -0.15% | +0.17% | 0.35% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | +0.10% | -0.10% | -0.55% | 0.36% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -0.07% | -0.18% | -0.04% | 0.30% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | +0.15% | +0.20% | +0.81% | 0.52% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -0.05% | -0.01% | -0.26% | 0.30% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | +0.23% | -0.07% | -0.26% | 0.95% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | +0.05% | -0.13% | +0.06% | 0.28% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -0.06% | +0.05% | -0.56% | 0.20% |
| 18 Jun 2025 | -0.21% | -0.07% | -0.51% | 0.50% |
| 7 May 2025 | +0.01% | -0.26% | +0.31% | 0.95% |
| 19 Mar 2025 | +0.23% | +0.30% | +1.08% | 0.76% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | -0.15% | -0.31% | +0.34% | 0.45% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | -0.29% | -0.98% | -1.72% | 1.03% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -0.02% | +0.02% | +0.24% | 0.21% |
| 18 Sep 2024 | +0.54% | +0.59% | +0.15% | 1.36% |
| 31 Jul 2024 | 0.00% | +0.22% | +0.65% | 0.47% |
| 12 Jun 2024 | -0.19% | +0.05% | +0.02% | 0.43% |
| 20 Mar 2024 | +0.49% | +0.54% | +0.81% | 0.77% |
| 31 Jan 2024 | -0.23% | -0.31% | -0.03% | 0.52% |
| 13 Dec 2023 | +0.46% | +0.65% | +1.10% | 0.79% |
| 20 Sep 2023 | -0.36% | -0.21% | -0.41% | 0.55% |
S&P 500
Across 25 releases, S&P 500 moved a typical 0.42% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 1.02%, on 18 Sep 2024. It finished that half hour higher 10 times out of 25. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.14% against 0.42% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.
first 30 min
18 Sep 2024
vs down
One line per release. Each traces the index from 15 minutes before the print to an hour after, as percent from the last price beforehand. Above the centre line is up. Newer releases are drawn brighter - hover a date to follow just that one.
Every release we have measured · 25
| release | 5 min after | 30 min after | 60 min after | swing, first 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.00% | 0.28% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.83% | 0.32% |
| 29 Jul 2026 | +0.25% | +0.14% | +0.77% | 0.50% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | -0.76% | -0.61% | -0.64% | 0.99% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -0.16% | -0.19% | 0.00% | 0.32% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | +0.06% | -0.09% | -0.51% | 0.32% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.03% | 0.23% |
| 10 Dec 2025 | +0.15% | +0.20% | +0.74% | 0.45% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.30% | 0.22% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | +0.31% | +0.11% | -0.29% | 0.70% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | +0.02% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.11% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -0.04% | +0.02% | -0.61% | 0.17% |
| 18 Jun 2025 | -0.15% | -0.04% | -0.40% | 0.42% |
| 7 May 2025 | +0.04% | -0.24% | +0.27% | 0.80% |
| 19 Mar 2025 | +0.21% | +0.25% | +0.89% | 0.62% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | -0.21% | -0.35% | +0.14% | 0.42% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | -0.29% | -0.89% | -1.50% | 0.91% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -0.03% | -0.02% | +0.21% | 0.20% |
| 18 Sep 2024 | +0.47% | +0.48% | +0.11% | 1.02% |
| 31 Jul 2024 | 0.00% | +0.13% | +0.51% | 0.34% |
| 12 Jun 2024 | -0.16% | +0.02% | -0.01% | 0.36% |
| 20 Mar 2024 | +0.39% | +0.41% | +0.67% | 0.59% |
| 31 Jan 2024 | -0.21% | -0.27% | -0.20% | 0.46% |
| 13 Dec 2023 | +0.50% | +0.68% | +1.18% | 0.76% |
| 20 Sep 2023 | -0.30% | -0.21% | -0.38% | 0.35% |
Questions people ask about the FOMC decision
How much does the Nasdaq 100 move after the FOMC decision?
Across 25 releases the Nasdaq 100 moved a median 0.50% from high to low in the first thirty minutes. The widest reaction was 1.36%, on 18 Sep 2024. It finished the half hour higher 10 times out of 25.
What time is FOMC Rate Decision released, and when is the next one?
Federal Reserve publishes it at 14:00 ET, on the final day of each scheduled two-day meeting. The next one is Wednesday 9 Dec 2026 at 14:00 ET.
Does the first move after the FOMC decision hold?
In 68% of the 25 releases measured, the Nasdaq 100 was still on the same side of the release price at sixty minutes as it was at five minutes. The other 32% reversed.
Which moves more after the FOMC decision, the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P 500?
The Nasdaq 100. Median thirty-minute swing: Nasdaq 100 0.50% over 25 releases, S&P 500 0.42% over 25. Each index is measured on its own record, so the two counts can differ.
Is the reaction to the FOMC decision over in thirty minutes?
Not by this measure. The median distance from the release price is 0.20% at thirty minutes and 0.41% at sixty, so the index was typically further from the release price an hour in than it was at the half hour. That compares two moments, not the path between them.
How this is measured
The reference price is the last print before the release minute. Every figure on this page is the distance from that price, as a percentage, using one-minute bars. “Swing” is the highest price minus the lowest price in the thirty minutes after the release - not the net change, which is where a price ended up rather than how far it travelled to get there.
Release dates come from the Federal Reserve's own published schedule, so an unusual date is a real one rather than a guess from a calendar rule. Prices are Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index CFDs, which trade around the clock and therefore cover the 08:30 ET releases that land before the equity market opens. They track the futures closely but are not the CME contracts, and every figure is a percentage of the index level, not a contract point.
Past reactions are a record, not a forecast. Nothing here is investment advice.
Other releases: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Durable Goods Orders Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Housing Starts and Building Permits Import and Export Prices Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) New Home Sales Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Producer Price Index (PPI) Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Retail Sales Trade Balance (International Trade)
Across every release: All of them · Which moves most · Biggest reactions · Beating the forecast · Does the first move hold · Is it over in 30 min · The quiet before · Up or down · Nasdaq vs S&P · The first minute · Two at once · Are they growing
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