In the thirty minutes after core PCE on 28 Feb 2025, the Nasdaq 100 swung 0.42% from its high to its low, close to the typical 0.40% across all 37 core PCE releases measured here (the 15th largest). It ended the half hour up 0.08% from the release price. By the 16:00 ET close it was up 1.63%, on the same side as the first five minutes.
The headline figure as it read on the day; for price indexes the seasonally adjusted change from the prior month. The gap to the forecast is in percentage points (pp) where both are percentages.
| after | Nasdaq 100 | S&P 500 | usual distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | +0.23% | +0.15% | 0.08% |
| 5 minutes | +0.23% | +0.11% | 0.11% |
| 15 minutes | +0.22% | +0.14% | 0.17% |
| 30 minutes | +0.08% | +0.03% | 0.19% |
| 1 hour | +0.02% | -0.09% | 0.19% |
| 2 hours | +0.84% | +0.40% | 0.47% |
| Swing, first 30 min | 0.42% | 0.27% | 0.40% |
Signed moves from the release price, in percent. Usual distance is the median size of the Nasdaq move at that mark across all 37 core PCE releases, without its sign; the swing row compares like with like.
The first five minutes went up 0.23%. At the 16:00 ET close the Nasdaq 100 was up 1.63% from the release price, so by the measure on the core PCE page this release was a trend: the close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. That compares two moments, not the path between them.
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All 37 core PCE releases, the averages and the method →
A record of what happened, not a forecast. Measured on Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index CFDs, one-minute bars; see the methodology.
Releases: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Durable Goods Orders Fed Rate Decision (FOMC) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Housing Starts and Building Permits Import and Export Prices Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) New Home Sales Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Producer Price Index (PPI) Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Retail Sales Trade Balance (International Trade)