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Event statistics

Every US release measured on this site, with its latest statistics. Tap one to open them here. Ordered by the next release.

High-impact releases

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)08:30 ET, usually the first Friday of the month · Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: Fri 6 Nov, 08:30 ET70% trend · 26 of 37 held to the closeConsumer Price Index (CPI)08:30 ET, monthly · Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: Tue 10 Nov, 08:30 ET71% trend · 27 of 38 held to the closeProducer Price Index (PPI)08:30 ET, monthly · Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: Fri 13 Nov, 08:30 ET58% trend · 22 of 38 held to the closeRetail Sales08:30 ET, monthly · Census BureauNext: Tue 17 Nov, 08:30 ET54% trend · 21 of 39 held to the closeCore Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE)08:30 ET, monthly · Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: Wed 25 Nov, 08:30 ET57% trend · 21 of 37 held to the closeGross Domestic Product (GDP)08:30 ET, quarterly, in three estimates · Bureau of Economic AnalysisNext: Wed 25 Nov, 08:30 ET43% trend · 15 of 35 held to the closeFed Rate Decision (FOMC)14:00 ET, on the final day of each scheduled two-day meeting · Federal ReserveNext: Wed 9 Dec, 14:00 ET58% trend · 14 of 24 held to the close

Medium-impact releases

Smaller reports, measured the same way. Several often print in the same minute as one of the releases above; those days are marked on each page.

Productivity and Unit Labor Costs08:30 ET, twice a quarter · Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: Thu 5 Nov, 08:30 ET62% trend · 16 of 26 held to the closeImport and Export Prices08:30 ET, monthly · Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: Tue 17 Nov, 08:30 ET65% trend · 24 of 37 held to the closeHousing Starts and Building Permits08:30 ET, monthly · Census BureauNext: Wed 18 Nov, 08:30 ET59% trend · 20 of 34 held to the closeDurable Goods Orders08:30 ET, monthly · Census BureauNext: Wed 25 Nov, 08:30 ET44% trend · 17 of 39 held to the closeNew Home Sales10:00 ET, monthly · Census BureauNext: Wed 25 Nov, 10:00 ET56% trend · 20 of 36 held to the closeJob Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS)10:00 ET, monthly · Bureau of Labor StatisticsNext: Tue 1 Dec, 10:00 ET87% trend · 34 of 39 held to the closeTrade Balance (International Trade)08:30 ET, monthly · Census BureauNext: Tue 8 Dec, 08:30 ET53% trend · 19 of 36 held to the close

Productivity and Unit Labor Costs

08:30 ET, twice a quarter · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Next: Thu 5 Nov, 08:30 ET

After productivity: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All16 of 26 held
Last 6 months3 of 4 held
S&P 500, all10 of 24 held
Latest3 Sep 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min up 0.22%, 16:00 close up 1.33% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 26 releases

73%09:00
58%10:00
58%11:00
65%12:00
65%13:00
65%14:00
69%15:00
62%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 2 of 26 lines run past ±1.8% and are cut at the edge.

+1.8%-1.8%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 3 Sep 2026every release

Every productivity release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 26 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 24 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 26 productivity releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 3 Sep 2026, minute by minute →

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

08:30 ET, usually the first Friday of the month · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Next: Fri 6 Nov, 08:30 ET

After NFP: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All26 of 37 held
Last 6 months5 of 6 held
S&P 500, all23 of 37 held
Latest2 Oct 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min up 0.40%, 16:00 close up 0.24% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 37 releases

84%09:00
81%10:00
68%11:00
59%12:00
59%13:00
65%14:00
70%15:00
70%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 4 of 37 lines run past ±2.5% and are cut at the edge.

+2.5%-2.5%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 2 Oct 2026every release

Every NFP release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 37 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 37 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 37 NFP releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 2 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

08:30 ET, monthly · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Next: Tue 10 Nov, 08:30 ET

After CPI: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All27 of 38 held
Last 6 months5 of 6 held
S&P 500, all23 of 37 held
Latest14 Oct 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min down 0.74%, 16:00 close down 2.14% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 38 releases

82%09:00
71%10:00
71%11:00
74%12:00
61%13:00
63%14:00
63%15:00
71%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went down first. 4 of 38 lines run past ±2.1% and are cut at the edge.

+2.1%-2.1%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 14 Oct 2026every release

Every CPI release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 38 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 37 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 38 CPI releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 14 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Producer Price Index (PPI)

08:30 ET, monthly · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Next: Fri 13 Nov, 08:30 ET

After PPI: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All22 of 38 held
Last 6 months1 of 6 held
S&P 500, all21 of 38 held
Latest15 Oct 2026
↺ Reversalfirst 5 min down 0.12%, 16:00 close up 1.03% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 38 releases

84%09:00
74%10:00
55%11:00
66%12:00
53%13:00
58%14:00
61%15:00
58%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went down first. 4 of 38 lines run past ±1.6% and are cut at the edge.

+1.6%-1.6%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 15 Oct 2026every release

Every PPI release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 38 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 38 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 38 PPI releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 15 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Import and Export Prices

08:30 ET, monthly · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Next: Tue 17 Nov, 08:30 ET

After import prices: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All24 of 37 held
Last 6 months3 of 6 held
S&P 500, all20 of 36 held
Latest16 Oct 2026
↺ Reversalfirst 5 min up 0.00%, 16:00 close down 2.44% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 37 releases

84%09:00
59%10:00
59%11:00
57%12:00
62%13:00
68%14:00
65%15:00
65%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 3 of 37 lines run past ±1.9% and are cut at the edge.

+1.9%-1.9%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 16 Oct 2026every release

Every import prices release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 37 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 36 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 37 import prices releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 16 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Retail Sales

08:30 ET, monthly · Census Bureau · Next: Tue 17 Nov, 08:30 ET

After retail sales: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All21 of 39 held
Last 6 months1 of 6 held
S&P 500, all20 of 39 held
Latest15 Oct 2026
↺ Reversalfirst 5 min down 0.12%, 16:00 close up 1.03% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 39 releases

85%09:00
67%10:00
62%11:00
46%12:00
51%13:00
59%14:00
59%15:00
54%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went down first. 3 of 39 lines run past ±2.0% and are cut at the edge.

+2.0%-2.0%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 15 Oct 2026every release

Every retail sales release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 39 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 39 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 39 retail sales releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 15 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Housing Starts and Building Permits

08:30 ET, monthly · Census Bureau · Next: Wed 18 Nov, 08:30 ET

After housing starts: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All20 of 34 held
Last 6 months5 of 6 held
S&P 500, all19 of 33 held
Latest20 Oct 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min up 0.02%, 16:00 close up 0.65% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 34 releases

79%09:00
65%10:00
47%11:00
53%12:00
62%13:00
59%14:00
62%15:00
59%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 6 of 34 lines run past ±1.4% and are cut at the edge.

+1.4%-1.4%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 20 Oct 2026every release

Every housing starts release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 34 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 33 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 34 housing starts releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 20 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE)

08:30 ET, monthly · Bureau of Economic Analysis · Next: Wed 25 Nov, 08:30 ET

After core PCE: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All21 of 37 held
Last 6 months3 of 5 held
S&P 500, all16 of 37 held
Latest30 Sep 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min up 0.40%, 16:00 close up 0.23% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 37 releases

86%09:00
62%10:00
62%11:00
54%12:00
49%13:00
51%14:00
57%15:00
57%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 3 of 37 lines run past ±2.3% and are cut at the edge.

+2.3%-2.3%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 30 Sep 2026every release

Every core PCE release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 37 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 37 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 37 core PCE releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 30 Sep 2026, minute by minute →

Durable Goods Orders

08:30 ET, monthly · Census Bureau · Next: Wed 25 Nov, 08:30 ET

After durable goods: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All17 of 39 held
Last 6 months3 of 6 held
S&P 500, all20 of 37 held
Latest27 Oct 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min up 0.01%, 16:00 close up 0.68% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 39 releases

77%09:00
64%10:00
62%11:00
51%12:00
51%13:00
46%14:00
49%15:00
44%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 5 of 39 lines run past ±2.4% and are cut at the edge.

+2.4%-2.4%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 27 Oct 2026every release

Every durable goods release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 39 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 37 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 39 durable goods releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 27 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

08:30 ET, quarterly, in three estimates · Bureau of Economic Analysis · Next: Wed 25 Nov, 08:30 ET

After GDP: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All15 of 35 held
Last 6 months3 of 5 held
S&P 500, all16 of 35 held
Latest30 Sep 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min up 0.40%, 16:00 close up 0.23% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 35 releases

91%09:00
66%10:00
71%11:00
60%12:00
54%13:00
54%14:00
40%15:00
43%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 3 of 35 lines run past ±1.6% and are cut at the edge.

+1.6%-1.6%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 30 Sep 2026every release

Every GDP release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 35 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 35 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 35 GDP releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 30 Sep 2026, minute by minute →

New Home Sales

10:00 ET, monthly · Census Bureau · Next: Wed 25 Nov, 10:00 ET

After new home sales: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All20 of 36 held
Last 6 months5 of 7 held
S&P 500, all18 of 27 held
Latest27 Oct 2026
↺ Reversalfirst 5 min down 0.05%, 16:00 close up 0.80% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 10:00 ET: 58% (432 of 741 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 36 releases

61%10:30
56%11:00
56%12:00
67%13:00
67%14:00
56%15:00
56%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went down first. 5 of 36 lines run past ±1.1% and are cut at the edge.

+1.1%-1.1%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
10:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 27 Oct 2026every release

Every new home sales release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 36 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 27 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 741 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 10:00 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 432 times (58%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 36 new home sales releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 27 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS)

10:00 ET, monthly · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Next: Tue 1 Dec, 10:00 ET

After JOLTS: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All34 of 39 held
Last 6 months6 of 7 held
S&P 500, all29 of 39 held
Latest3 Nov 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min up 0.01%, 16:00 close up 0.06% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 10:00 ET: 58% (432 of 741 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 39 releases

69%10:30
72%11:00
72%12:00
69%13:00
72%14:00
79%15:00
87%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 6 of 39 lines run past ±1.6% and are cut at the edge.

+1.6%-1.6%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
10:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 3 Nov 2026every release

Every JOLTS release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 39 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 39 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 741 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 10:00 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 432 times (58%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 39 JOLTS releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 3 Nov 2026, minute by minute →

Trade Balance (International Trade)

08:30 ET, monthly · Census Bureau · Next: Tue 8 Dec, 08:30 ET

After the trade balance: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All19 of 36 held
Last 6 months3 of 4 held
S&P 500, all16 of 36 held
Latest6 Oct 2026
↗ Trendfirst 5 min down 0.07%, 16:00 close down 0.06% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 08:30 ET: 54% (313 of 579 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 36 releases

67%09:00
56%10:00
53%11:00
53%12:00
56%13:00
56%14:00
50%15:00
53%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went down first. 5 of 36 lines run past ±1.7% and are cut at the edge.

+1.7%-1.7%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
08:3010:0011:0012:0013:0014:0015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 6 Oct 2026every release

Every the trade balance release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 36 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 36 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 37 the trade balance releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 6 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Fed Rate Decision (FOMC)

14:00 ET, on the final day of each scheduled two-day meeting · Federal Reserve · Next: Wed 9 Dec, 14:00 ET

After the FOMC decision: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

All14 of 24 held
Last 6 months1 of 4 held
S&P 500, all13 of 24 held
Latest28 Oct 2026
↺ Reversalfirst 5 min down 0.08%, 16:00 close up 0.44% from the release price
ordinary day without one of these releases at 14:00 ET: 56% (418 of 753 weekdays, measured on Nasdaq 100 micro futures, not the index CFD)

Through the day, all 24 releases

67%14:30
67%15:00
58%16:00
on the first move’s side of the release price at that timeon the other side at that time

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went down first. 2 of 24 lines run past ±1.6% and are cut at the edge.

+1.6%-1.6%first move’s side ↑other side ↓
14:0014:3015:0016:00
medianmiddle halflatest, 28 Oct 2026every release

Every the FOMC decision release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 24 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 24 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 753 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 14:00 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 418 times (56%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

All 25 the FOMC decision releases, charts and method →
The latest one, 28 Oct 2026, minute by minute →

Releases: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Durable Goods Orders Fed Rate Decision (FOMC) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Housing Starts and Building Permits Import and Export Prices Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) New Home Sales Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Producer Price Index (PPI) Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Retail Sales Trade Balance (International Trade)