How the Nasdaq 100 reacts to import prices, measured over 37 releases

Does the first move keep going?

The first move is where the Nasdaq 100 sat five minutes after import prices, above or below the release price. Later, each release either kept going (same side, further away), held but gave some back (same side, closer to the release price) or reversed (back across it). 37 releases.

Split by the first move, one hour on: when the first five minutes went up, the index was still above the release price in 12 of 17; when they went down, it was back above the release price in 2 of 19.

Counts of what happened on the index CFD, not odds for the next release. With a few dozen releases one or two prints move every percentage noticeably. Each row looks at one moment only, not the path in between. A reading exactly at the release price counts as reversed and an equal distance as gave some back; a release missing that reading drops out of that row only. Releases that shared their minute with another report are included.

After import prices: trend or reversal?

Did the first five minutes decide the day’s direction, all the way to the 16:00 ET close?

Trend: the 16:00 ET close was on the same side of the release price as the 5-minute mark. Reversal: it closed on the other side. Neither says what happened in between. Past counts, not odds for the next release.

Through the day, all 37 releases

Every release, drawn relative to its first move

Flipped so every line starts upward, whichever way the index went: above the centre line means on the first move’s side, not that the index rose. The latest release actually went up first. 3 of 37 lines run past ±1.9% and are cut at the edge.

Swipe the chart sideways for the whole day →

Every import prices release since Aug 2023 with a full day of data, 37 so far, on the Nasdaq 100 index CFD (one-minute bid candles), updated after each new one closes. A release whose first five minutes ended exactly flat is left out; a close exactly at the release price would count as a reversal (none so far). Releases that shared their minute with another report are included. The S&P 500 row is the same count on the S&P 500: its own first five minutes, against its official 16:00 close, 36 releases. The ordinary-day mark: on 579 weekdays with none of these eight releases at 08:30 ET, the first five minutes held to the close 313 times (54%), measured on CME Nasdaq 100 micro futures from 1 Aug 2023 to 23 Sep 2026 with the same rule. A different instrument and a slightly shorter period than the bars above, and other reports at that time were not excluded. Counts of what happened, not a forecast.

Nasdaq 100

Across 37 releases, Nasdaq 100 moved a typical 0.26% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 1.18%, on 15 Aug 2024. It finished that half hour higher 17 times out of 37. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.10% against 0.26% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.

All 37 releases, including 22 that shared their minute with another report; the cross-release figures leave those out.

Every release we have measured · 37

S&P 500

Across 36 releases, S&P 500 moved a typical 0.18% from high to low in the thirty minutes after the print. The widest was 0.88%, on 15 Aug 2024. It finished that half hour higher 16 times out of 36. The net move is consistently smaller than the swing - a median of 0.07% against 0.18% of travel - which is what a price that jumps and comes back looks like in numbers.

All 36 releases, including 23 that shared their minute with another report; the cross-release figures leave those out.

Every release we have measured · 36

How this is measured

The reference price is the last print before the release minute. Every figure on this page is the distance from that price, as a percentage, using one-minute bars. “Swing” is the highest price minus the lowest price in the thirty minutes after the release - not the net change, which is where a price ended up rather than how far it travelled to get there.

Release dates come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics's own published schedule, so an unusual date is a real one rather than a guess from a calendar rule. Prices are Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index CFDs, which trade around the clock and therefore cover the 08:30 ET releases that land before the equity market opens. They track the futures closely but are not the CME contracts, and every figure is a percentage of the index level, not a contract point.

Past reactions are a record, not a forecast. Nothing here is investment advice.