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For NinjaTrader 8 traders who trade the US morning

The CPI line on your chart already says trend 71%.

TradingCipher Events puts every high- and medium-impact US release on your NinjaTrader 8 chart before it prints, with its trend probability: how often, since August 2023, the move of the first five minutes after that release held all the way to the close. You set it up once. It updates itself every day.

Trend probability by release

CPI trend 71%JOLTS trend 87%GDP rev 57%
Start your free 30 days

No charge until day 31. Cancel any time from your Whop orders page.

  • 30 days free
  • NinjaTrader 8
  • Updates itself daily
CPI on a 1-minute MNQ chart with trend 71% written at the top of the release line; a hard drop at the print, then a steady walk lower under the RTH range
CPI on my 1-minute MNQ chart, "trend 71%" at the top of the line: a hard drop on the print, then a down trend for the cash session. Marked up after the close.

What "trend 71%" on a line means

Every release line carries one number: the probability, from the record, that this release turns into a trend day. It is counted the same way every time.

1The release printsThe price at that minute is the reference.
2Five minutes laterIs the index above or below the reference? That is the first move.
3At the 16:00 closeIs the index still on the same side of the reference?
Yes: a trend dayThe first move held to the close. The line reads "trend" with the share of such days.
No: a reversal dayThe close came back across. When reversals are the bigger share, the line reads "rev".

"trend 71%" on CPI means: on 27 of the last 38 CPI days the first five-minute move held to the close. A trend day 71% of the time. A count of the past, not a forecast of the next one.

The story

Why this exists

From the trader who built itMNQ, one-minute charts

I trade MNQ on one-minute charts. For a long time the release calendar lived in another tab, and the release itself showed up on my chart only as a candle I had to explain afterwards. So I put the releases on the chart for myself: a line on the bar, the next ones pinned at the right edge.

Then I measured them. Every CPI, every jobs report, every Fed decision and the rest since August 2023, minute by minute, on the Nasdaq 100. The question was simple: after the first five minutes, which side did the day close on? The answer was not the same for every release.

27/38CPI: the first move held to the close
34/39JOLTS: the first move held to the close
20/35GDP: the first move reversed by the close
54%an ordinary 8:30 morning, no release

That record is what the indicator writes on each line. It is not a forecast and it does not pick a side. It tells you what kind of day this release has tended to make, at the moment you are deciding how to trade it.

What stops most traders

Three things traders believe that are not quite true

1What people thinkI already have an economic calendar.A calendar tells you the time in another window. The chart is where you trade. Here the release is a line on the exact bar, the next ones wait at the right edge with the weekday and the time in your zone, and every past one is still there when you scroll back, so you can tell which spikes were news.
2What people thinkRelease days are random. Nobody can say what follows.Nobody can say what the next one will do. But what each release has done is counted, and the releases are not alike: some hold their first move far more often than an ordinary morning, some reverse more often than they hold. The full record, every release, is free on this site.
3What people thinkAnother tool to look after.The schedule comes from the agencies' own calendars and refreshes every day by itself. Install takes two minutes: import the zip, add it to a chart, paste the key. Then you forget it is there until the next release line appears.

The offer

What you get

  • Every US release that moves the index, on the bar it printedThe big ones in red (CPI, PPI, the jobs report, retail sales, GDP, core PCE, the Fed), the medium ones in orange (JOLTS, durable goods, housing starts, new home sales, trade, import prices, productivity).
  • The trend probability on every line"trend 71%" on CPI, "trend 87%" on JOLTS: how often the first five-minute move held to the close. It updates as new releases land. Two releases in the same minute get the record of the days they came out together.
  • Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500 recordsEvery record is counted on both indexes. One setting picks which your chart shows: the Nasdaq 100 for NQ and MNQ, the S&P 500 for ES and MES.
  • The NEXT stripThe coming releases pinned at the right edge with weekday, time and record, in the chart's time zone or one you choose. You see Thursday's release on Monday.
  • Big-company earningsEvery US company worth $20 billion or more, marked before the open or after the close, with a size filter so earnings season stays readable.
  • Daily updates, all yearNew dates, moved dates and new records arrive by themselves.
  • The whole record behind it, freeEvery release minute by minute on this site, the method in the open, and the person who built it on the other end of the contact form.
The NEXT strip on a NinjaTrader chart: housing starts trend 58%, durable goods rev 58%, new home sales trend 57% in orange and the Fed decision trend 61% in red, with the next earnings above
The NEXT strip on my chart: the coming releases with day, time and record, the medium ones in orange, the Fed in red.

The price

What is it worth to you?

Think about what this does for you. No more checking a calendar in another tab before every session. No more stop sitting right where an 8:30 candle is about to land because the chart never said a release was coming. And the record on every line: 497 releases measured minute by minute since August 2023, the kind of work you would never do yourself on a Sunday.

A single 10-point stop on one NQ contract is $200. Something that saves you time and keeps you out of even one of those is worth a lot more than a few dollars, right?

Here is the whole thing, for one year
$20 a year
About four ticks on one NQ contract, once a year.
Start your free 30 days

No charge until day 31. Cancel any time from your Whop orders page.

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No risk to try it.The first 30 days are free. Whop takes a card at checkout and charges nothing until day 31. Cancel before then from your Orders page on whop.com and you pay nothing; the indicator simply stops at the end of the trial. One key, one PC, every chart on it.

Proof on a chart

Four real days, marked up after the close

From my own 1-minute MNQ charts: my read of the day, and the moves I think were easier to take with the release line and its record on the screen. An example of trading from key areas of the RTH range, not a strategy and not results.

Retail sales and the Fed decision on one day, each line with its own trend record at the top
Retail sales, then the Fed. Two releases in one day, each line with its own record: the first reversed back into the pre-market range, the second trended.
NFP line with its trend record; a jump at the print and a push out of the top of the RTH range
Jobs report. Up on the print, a long bias, then midday news took it back inside the range.
CPI line on a choppy session inside the RTH range
CPI, a difficult day. No trend; the longs off the RTH range were the easier side.
NFP line with two down legs from the top of the RTH range
Jobs report, short bias. Two short legs, each from the top of the RTH range.

Click a picture to see it full size. Marked up in hindsight. The boxes on the dashed lines are NinjaTrader's ruler, measured after the fact, not trades taken and not results. Past moves say nothing about the next one. The RTH range box and the measuring lines are separate tools; TradingCipher Events draws the release lines, their records, the earnings marks and the NEXT strip.

Honest fit

Who it is for, and who it is not for

For you if

  • you trade index futures on NinjaTrader 8 during the US morning
  • you have been surprised by a release candle more than once
  • you want to know what kind of day a release tends to make, without anyone telling you which way to trade it

Not for you if

  • you want signals, entries or a forecast of the number
  • you do not use NinjaTrader 8
  • you only trade overnight or long after the US open

Questions

Before you start

Does it work on a prop firm account?

It draws on the chart and places no orders, so it works on whatever account and data connection your NinjaTrader 8 uses.

Can I use it on several charts?

Yes. One key covers one PC, and on that PC every chart and every instrument. It draws on time-based bars: seconds, minutes, days.

What happens after the free days?

On day 31 Whop charges $20 a year and the licence runs for a year from then. If you cancel before that, nothing is charged. Cancel any time from your Orders page on whop.com.

Is it a signal?

No. It does not tell you the number, the consensus or which way the market leans. It tells you when, and what happened the other times, and leaves the trade to you.

How do I install it?

NinjaTrader 8 on Windows, any data feed. Tools, Import, NinjaScript Add-On, pick the zip, add TradingCipher Events to a chart and paste the key into its settings. The download is here (version 1.2.0). Questions go through the contact form and are answered by the person who built it, usually the same day.

How do I update to a new version?

Tools, Remove NinjaScript Assembly, remove the old TradingCipherEvents, restart NinjaTrader, then import the new zip. If the indicator is missing from a chart afterwards, add it again and paste the same key. The download is here (version 1.2.0).

Put the record on your chart before the next release

$20 a year. The first 30 days free.

Start your free 30 days

No charge until day 31. Cancel any time from your Whop orders page.

P.S. The next jobs report is Friday, November 6, at 08:30 ET. Start the trial today and it is on your chart before it prints, with its record.

Releases: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Durable Goods Orders Fed Rate Decision (FOMC) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Housing Starts and Building Permits Import and Export Prices Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) New Home Sales Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Producer Price Index (PPI) Productivity and Unit Labor Costs Retail Sales Trade Balance (International Trade)